JUSTICE MALALA: Ramaphosa is going nowhere — for now

There are new reports that President Cyril Ramaphosa is “in the departure lounge” and, under pressure from his ANC colleagues, intends to resign after South Africa hands over the presidency of the G20 to the US in December.

It would not surprise me if the reports were true, but any talk of Ramaphosa’s resignation needs to be put in context: he is always in the departure lounge. What always stops Ramaphosa from leaving is the huge hole the party stares into whenever he prepares to go: candidates for his replacement are underwhelming, to say the least.

The party’s bench is shallow, filled with a bunch of compromised leaders whose ability to grapple with and vanquish the country’s problems is suspect.

We have been here before several times since Ramaphosa became president in 2019.

Remember early December 2022, when he scheduled an address to the nation on a Thursday evening? An independent panel headed by retired chief justice Sandile Ngcobo had found that Ramaphosa may have committed a violation of the law and serious misconduct in terms of the constitution in his handling of the Phala Phala “dollars in sofa cushions” saga.

Ramaphosa had prepared a resignation speech announcing he would withdraw from the ANC leadership race, to be held in just two weeks in mid-December 2022. He would start preparing to hand over the running of the country to whoever would be elected at the conference.

Paul Mashatile, at the time acting as party secretary in the absence of Ace Magashule, who had legal and other troubles to contend with, called a special national executive committee meeting to oversee Ramaphosa’s departure. It was not to be.

ANC leaders stared into the yawning leadership void that would be left by Ramaphosa, and what they saw there was mediocrity and incompetence.

Mondli Gungubele, one of Ramaphosa’s trusted allies, rushed to Hyde Park and gave his boss a talking to. He told the president that Ngcobo’s report was weak on its interpretation of the law and could be challenged.

Until the opposition is ready to unseat the ANC and take over the government, the ANC will continue to ask Ramaphosa to stay

Then along came Gwede Mantashe, Ramaphosa’s old comrade from the National Union of Mineworkers and his most senior minister at the time, running minerals and energy. He made the same point and advised Ramaphosa to stare down his detractors and fight the report in court.

ANC Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane, Northern Cape premier Zamani Saul and others also told Ramaphosa to put his pen down and stop with the letter-writing.

He listened. He stayed. Two weeks later he won the ANC’s presidency against the scandal-soaked Zweli Mkhize, who had been forced to resign over the Digital Vibes tender debacle. It wasn’t that Ramaphosa was great. It was that the potential replacements were dreadful.

The ANC has the same problem today. If Ramaphosa goes, who leads and keeps this creaky ship together? Even the rather comical Patriotic Alliance (PA) does not want to gamble with the possibility of a South Africa that gets taken over by a Jacob Zuma-Julius Malema-new ANC leader alliance.

PA leader Gayton McKenzie last week told Business Day that he would continue to back Ramaphosa should he face a motion of no confidence, despite his own party’s threat to pull out of the GNU.

McKenzie revealed that he had already been approached by Zuma’s MK Party and the EFF to rally his party in support of a motion to remove Ramaphosa. He had said no.

Word is that if Ramaphosa leaves after December, Mantashe would be appointed caretaker president, as Kgalema Motlanthe was in 2008 when Thabo Mbeki was booted out by Zuma supporters.

The alternative, ANC insiders say, is for Mashatile to take over immediately and work to win the party presidency in December 2027 or bring the party conference forward to December 2026.

You can see the problem here. Mantashe has not covered himself in glory as a minister since 2019. Mashatile’s mansions stand as a warning of what is to come if he becomes president. The rest cannot win an election.

So, until the opposition is ready to unseat the ANC and take over the government, the ANC will continue to ask Ramaphosa to stay because anyone else right now is just too ghastly to contemplate. Even the ANC knows this. Ramaphosa is staying.