The selection of Helen Zille as the DA’s mayoral candidate in Joburg was essential for the party, which has been on a downward trajectory in Joburg.
Its participation in the GNU and occupation of some important ministries in the government should not mask the reality that its support has stagnated, and in some places (Joburg and Tshwane) declined since the highs recorded in the 2016 local government election.
Its own polling shows that DA support is at 37% in Joburg to the ANC’s 31% after the Zille announcement, but that is still slightly shy of the high of 38.4% it obtained in 2016.
Zille’s entry into the race, given her track record and national profile, will probably help the DA’s campaign. But the party also has to produce some real achievements in the portfolios it holds nationally, while showing that it is willing to work constructively with the ANC to take the country forward.
The DA needs a major shift in perceptions. There are many opportunities to work on this, including through a leadership overhaul at its congress in April next year. Zille is out of that race, given her candidacy for the Joburg mayoral job. She is likely to be replaced as federal council chair by her deputy, Ashor Sarupen.
Whether current leader John Steenhuisen will be challenged, or will contest for re-election, remains to be seen. But there are voices agitating for change at the very top of the party.
Internal dynamics aside, Zille’s entry into the Joburg race raises the opportunity to look at potential coalition scenarios after the election.
Results over the past two election cycles show that aside from the ANC and the DA, the EFF, ActionSA and Jacob Zuma’s MK Party will be key players across Gauteng metros after the local government election, which is due to be held between November 2026 and February 2027. MK made an effective entrance into the metro space in its debut election last May, securing 12% of the vote in Joburg and 14% in Ekurhuleni.
The EFF’s support remains stable across the three Gauteng metros, but ActionSA is the party to watch, despite its poor showing in the 2024 general election.
The DA had its strongest showing in Joburg in 2016 with Herman Mashaba (now ActionSA leader) as its candidate. Going on its own in 2021, ActionSA posted a potent 16%. But its support in the city during the national election dipped to 6%, due to its contesting across the country. It spread its resources widely, instead of using a focused campaign in Joburg.
The DA needs a major shift in perceptions. There are many opportunities to work on this
ActionSA chair Michael Beaumont says the party is considering strategies to maximise its support again, particularly in Joburg and across Gauteng. He believes it likely that the largest parties in Gauteng councils will be the ANC, the DA, ActionSA and MK or the EFF. If it pans out this way, there will be three options for coalitions: one with the DA and ActionSA; another with the ANC and the DA; and the third with the ANC, ActionSA, the EFF and other smaller parties, as is the case in Tshwane currently.
Beaumont says ActionSA cannot say which scenario would be most palatable. The party took a resolution last year shortly after the election that it would not rule out working with any political party in a coalition.
“We will basically now deal with it on the merits of the decision at hand,” says Beaumont. “We’ve learnt that lesson in Tshwane, where we attached ourselves at the hip to a failing government and got hammered for it in places. We are open to working with different configurations of parties and we’ll take each decision on its merits without making sweeping statements.”
He points out that the only party not in coalition with the ANC in some municipality or province is MK.
A big question to be answered after the local election is whether parties will negotiate coalitions on a council-by-council basis or in bulk across a number of metros, or even provincially.
Zille’s candidacy will also prompt other parties to put their best people forward. Candidate selection among parties hoping to counter Zille is already being taken extremely seriously. The ANC, for instance, is scouting outside its regional leadership for potential candidates.
ANC insiders say mayor Dada Morero and Loyiso Masuku, his competitor in the ANC’s internal race for leadership in Joburg, are both unlikely to make the cut as mayoral candidates.
Rather, the ANC is on the hunt for the perfect candidate to neutralise Zille’s bid. This might include bringing in a party veteran or even a member of the national cabinet. Trade, industry & competition minister and former mayor Parks Tau is touted as a potential candidate, but it’s too soon to say.
The two largest parties in Joburg, the ANC and the DA, have much to lose in the upcoming election, with the ANC on a dramatic downward trajectory and the DA inching in the negative direction too.
For the DA, there are options to arrest and reverse this trend, if its leaders are brave and bold enough to pursue them.
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