If the DA — “a party for white South Africans”— did not change it would not win a national election, political analyst Prince Mashele said at Old Mutual’s midyear economic outlook function.
Mashele said in response to a question about whether the DA would ever win a national election that race was an important issue in SA politics.
“The DA … in the main — its character — is that of being a party for white South Africans. Race is important in the politics of our country … so the DA will have to make some serious changes. It will have to attract into its ranks a critical mass of black leaders that it can project as equals, not as puppets. If the DA were to do that, it could win an election.”
Among the key points raised at the midyear outlook on Thursday was whether SA is a failed state. Mashele and Old Mutual chief economist Johann Els said it was not.
Mashele characterised the political climate as a transition in which “the ANC being processed out of power”.
“When a governing party is being processed out of power, there are two possibilities. One, it can resist. The ANC is not resisting. Two, it can destabilise the country politically. The ANC is not destabilising the country politically,” he said, adding that the ANC had accepted its diminished electoral mandate and chosen to form a government of national unity (GNU).
“The GNU is a government of political enemies. They are in this primarily to weaken each other,” he said, adding that crucially adversarial tension has not led to state paralysis.
From an economic perspective, Els said when SA was compared to “similar countries that foreign investors compare us with … [we’re] not the worst in the world”.
Foreign investors continued to view SA as a functioning state, Els said.
He added that SA compared favourably with peer countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Turkey and even India. “We’re way better than Zimbabwe. We’re way better than Russia. We’re not the best — Mauritius or Botswana — but we’re not the worst in the world.”
Investors were inspired by SA’s improving growth environment, a strong constitution, strong institutions, “slightly reducing political risk” and the checks and balances in place, he said.
“Despite the many failings out there, we’re not a failed state,” he said.
Mashele said the GNU would “continue to limp, but it’s not going to break up. We must learn to live with an unstable GNU that does not collapse.”
Mashele expects that, despite his sentiments on race demographics, there will be a shift in power towards the DA in the medium to long term.
He also expects the ANC to weaken further at next year’s local government elections.
“We must expect the ANC to be weaker in big metros. My prediction is that the DA is going to emerge stronger in a city such as Johannesburg, for example, especially if a politician such as Helen Zille were to be a mayoral candidate of the party.”
Mashele noted that if Zille were to stand “the DA is going to win Johannesburg. That is going to be a big game changer, because it’s going to shift power from the ANC to the DA in Gauteng.
“My sense is that she will do better than ANC mayors … We are likely to see the DA becoming bigger in the medium to long term.”
MK party was not a threat as it lacked internal cohesion, he said.
“It doesn’t have structures. It is a family affair of [former president Jacob] Zuma, and as we can see already, it is beset by infighting, so it’s not going to stabilise.”
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