The Gaza conflict, which started two years ago today, is facing a test; the choice is simple: end the war or continue the strife.
Ahead of the second anniversary of the war, which has claimed the lives of more than 60,000 Palestinians, negotiators from Hamas, Israel, the US and Qatar descended in Egypt to consider a peace plan. The plan was drafted by advisers of Donald Trump, America’s president.
Last week, Trump hosted Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, to sell the plan to him. He gave Hamas, the Palestinian militant group which attacked Israel on October 7 2023, until this past Sunday to accept the plan or “all hell” would break out.
The plan provides for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages held by Hamas. It also demands that Hamas agrees to disarm and accept a technocratic government in the strip.
Trump wants Israel to end the bombardment of Gaza and withdraw in favour of an international stabilisation force. He believes the parties are ready for peace. He is not incorrect. But much more will need to be done to secure a durable peace in Gaza and the region.
Both sides are exhausted. Israel’s army and reservists have been deployed in this war for two years and most of Hamas’s operatives, who killed 1,200 Israelis, have been killed in Gaza and neighbouring countries. It is believed that the end of the war will pave the way for humanitarian aid to flow to Gaza.
The plan is not perfect, but it has the potential of being a building block to a credible one. The first phase will be the hardest. The hostages, especially those still alive, are a bargaining chip for Hamas. Without them, Hamas will lose all leverage to negotiate. Even though militarily weakened, the call to give up their weapons is unappealing.
For Israel, releasing the prisoners is not straightforward. Families of those killed by the Hamas prisoners will have to agree to their release.
The biggest hurdle is a lack of trust from both sides. Trump is basing his optimism on two factors. First, he believes his Arab allies, such as the Qataris, can lean on Hamas to accept the deal and second, he believes his ally, Netanyahu, can root out what remains of Hamas with America’s support if the deal is not accepted.
Hamas doesn’t trust Israel to keep its word. Last month, Israel attacked a residence in Qatar housing Hamas’s political negotiators. The strike, which killed a few, was roundly condemned by Arab nations. The moderate political elements of Hamas are based in Qatar. Bombing them is counterproductive to lasting peace.
Worse, the Trump administration refused travel visas to the Palestinian Authority delegation to the UN General Assembly. The reason was the administration’s belief that the authority had not sufficiently distanced itself from Hamas’s militants.
Netanyahu’s definition of what constitutes Israel’s security is broad. It includes bombing countries in the region seen to be tolerant of Hamas and their proxies. This year alone Israel has bombed Lebanon, Qatar and Iran.
Trump is the only leader with leverage over Netanyahu. He needs to use it wisely to hold his Israeli ally to his word. The Palestinians need to be allowed to rebuild their lives from the ruins. The first step would be repeating his private rebukes of Netanyahu in public.
However, a long-term solution has to be much broader than the US plan. For it to be legitimate, the wider international community must guarantee the plan instead of watching as the US appears to be imposing its will on the region.
Once the ceasefire is secured, three elements must be implemented. First, Israel must allow humanitarian aid to Gaza; second, Israel must withdraw from Gaza; and third, the international community must guarantee the ceasefire and return of Gazans.
It’s hard to think of a solution that writes off the two-state idea. Palestinians must ultimately be allowed to run their own affairs
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