Helen Zille’s return to Johannesburg politics as the DA’s mayoral candidate has reignited debate about her legacy, her strategy and the city’s future.
She is one of SA’s most recognisable political figures, with the DA’s best-known governance record in Cape Town to her name. The problem is Johannesburg is not Cape Town. It is bigger, poorer, more indebted and more politically fragmented. Winning here outright would require not just carrying DA loyalists but also persuading vast numbers of undecided and disillusioned voters.
The city’s politics are now defined by fractured coalitions, volatile alliances and service delivery collapse. Against this backdrop Zille is unlikely to triumph outright, though she may still shape the outcome.
Johannesburg’s political trajectory since 2006 has been dramatic. The ANC once commanded dominance, securing more than 60% of the vote in the mid-2000s. By 2021 it had collapsed to just 34%. Meanwhile, the DA grew steadily to its 2016 high of 38.4%, before tumbling back to 26% five years later.
Fragmented electorate clouds DA prospects
The ANC’s long decline has not automatically translated into DA strength. Instead, Johannesburg voters have splintered across a widening array of parties — from the EFF to ActionSA and now Jacob Zuma’s MK. The city has shifted from being an ANC stronghold to a battleground where no party can govern alone.
Recent polling underscores this trend. In early 2025 the Institute of Race Relations placed the DA slightly ahead of the ANC nationally, marking a symbolic moment — the first time the DA had overtaken the ANC in a broad survey. Yet this was a national story, not a Johannesburg one, and it offered no metro level breakdowns.
Locally, the DA has been quick to highlight friendlier numbers. As Zille entered the mayoral race its internal polling showed the party leading the ANC in Johannesburg — 37% to 31%. While internal polls must be treated cautiously, their release suggests the DA believes it is competitive in the city. Yet top-line numbers obscure the real dynamics: Johannesburg voters are scattering towards smaller parties and coalition arithmetic — not single-party dominance — will ultimately decide power.
A polarising yet recognisable figure
Zille enters this race with name recognition few rivals can match. Yet she is also one of the most polarising figures in SA politics. Her past comments on colonialism and race have hardened perceptions of elitism and arrogance. In Johannesburg’s diverse communities this is a liability.
Her governance success in Cape Town gives her a record to run on. She can credibly point to improved services, better financial management and institutional stability under her leadership. But Cape Town’s problems, while serious, never matched the complexity of Johannesburg’s failing infrastructure, sprawling informal settlements and fiscal strain.
Her candidacy also faces structural weaknesses. She is not embedded in Johannesburg’s ward-level politics, where trust and activism matter. At 73 her re-entry reinforces the impression of an older political class recycling familiar faces rather than nurturing new leadership. And perhaps most damaging, she carries strong negatives: a large bloc of voters who simply dislike or distrust her.
Allies turn adversaries
The reaction from ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba captured this dynamic. He called her candidacy “deeply insulting”, signalling not just a lack of interest in co-operation but active hostility. If one of the DA’s potential partners treats her candidacy as toxic, her chances of building a functional post-election coalition shrink further.
[Mashaba] called her candidacy “deeply insulting”, signalling not just a lack of interest in co-operation but active hostility.
If Zille has a narrative weapon it is the ANC’s recent record in Johannesburg. The party’s stewardship of the city through unstable coalitions has been disastrous. Mayors have come and gone in quick succession. Johannesburg has seen nine mayors since 2016, many removed by motions of no confidence or forced resignations amid shifting alliances.
The present ANC mayor, Dada Morero, has become a lightning rod for criticism. The city has operated without a permanent city manager for eight months, leaving a yawning governance gap, and Morero has been accused of having no plan to resolve Johannesburg’s worsening water crisis despite billions of rand earmarked for water infrastructure seemingly evaporating.
Johannesburg residents face regular service breakdowns, while political leaders trade accusations. For Zille this chaos is political capital: she can argue that Johannesburg cannot survive another five years of ANC-led dysfunction.
DA’s own coalition baggage
But here too the DA has baggage. The party governed the city under Mashaba from 2016-19 and then again under Mpho Phalatse from 2021-23. Coalition instability led to Phalatse’s repeated removal and optimism over DA coalitions quickly soured.
Budgets were delayed, revenue sustainability weakened and service delivery faltered. Political compromises routinely displaced governance priorities. Voters remember not stability, but fractious councils, uneven services and endless infighting. Zille cannot easily argue that the DA will “fix” Johannesburg when its own coalition record is at best mixed.
The reality is that no party is likely to win Johannesburg outright in 2026. The ANC is in free fall, the DA is competitive but capped, and smaller parties are entrenched. The city’s future will be shaped by coalitions, deals and compromises.
Coalition politics in Johannesburg has already revealed its dangers: instability, frequent changes of mayor and policy paralysis. But it is now baked into the city’s political fabric. The mayor’s role is less that of visionary leader than of dealmaker, whose main task is to keep the numbers together long enough to pass budgets and deliver the basics.
A poor fit for coalition politics
This is not the terrain on which Zille thrives. She is a combative politician, adept at national debates and ideological positioning. But coalition politics requires patience, compromise and quiet consensus building. Her presence may galvanise DA loyalists, but it is far from clear that she can keep a coalition intact in Johannesburg’s volatile environment.
Zille matters because her candidacy ensures the DA will be central to Johannesburg’s drama after 2026. She brings experience, visibility and controversy in equal measure. But she will not win outright. The ANC’s collapse has not created a DA breakthrough; it has created a fragmented field where smaller parties are indispensable.
The bigger threat to Johannesburg lies not in whether Zille wins or loses, but in what comes after the election.
The bigger threat to Johannesburg lies not in whether Zille wins or loses, but in what comes after the election. Political instability has become one of the most damaging features of local government. Johannesburg, the most notorious case, has cycled through nine mayors since 2016 — a revolving door that erodes continuity, undermines long-term planning and creates uncertainty for officials and investors. The same pattern is repeated in metros and large locals across SA.
The solution lies in national legislation. A version of the Coalition Bill is already before parliament, and the government has said it wants stabilisation laws in place before the 2026 local elections. To be sure, these are badly needed. But with committee deliberations still ongoing there is no guarantee the bill will be ready in time. Until such safeguards are enacted Johannesburg will remain hostage to fragile coalitions and unstable political deals.
Johannesburg will not be conquered; it will be contended. For all her stature Zille cannot transcend the coalition insecurity that defines the city today. And unless parliament acts quickly on the Coalition Bill that insecurity will remain Johannesburg’s greatest post-election threat.
• Allan, special adviser to a previous local government minister, is MD of data and intelligence organisation Municipal IQ.
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