SA’s agricultural sector is proving resilient in the face of recent US tariff hikes, with exports surging and diversification efforts gathering pace.
“While the US tariffs present hurdles for a few niche agri sectors, we are seeing data trends that support a counternarrative: the disruption is accelerating a shift towards new opportunities,” said Sean Walsh, CEO of KAL Group, the JSE-listed agricultural, fuel and convenience speciality retailer.
“Trade flows are starting to realign, and long-planned diversification into Asia, Africa and Europe is gaining momentum, supported by better logistics and stronger trade partnerships,” he said.
Though the US is often cited as a key trading partner for SA overall, and remains a lifeline for certain sectors, its role in agricultural exports is comparatively minor.
Recent Agbiz research supports this. In the first quarter, Southern African Development Community (Sadc) countries accounted for 39% of SA’s agricultural exports, followed by the EU at about 25%. Other significant markets include the UK, China and regional sectors within the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu). The US made up just 4%-6.5% of agricultural exports over the past few years.
The citrus industry, a flagship export, has been at the centre of the debate over US tariffs. But Walsh noted 2025 was turning into a banner year, and most citrus shipments had occurred before the 30% US tariff took effect.
He noted only about 4% of SA’s citrus exports were destined for the US in 2024, totalling 6.58-million cartons. Within the US market for southern hemisphere citrus, SA held a 13.9% share, trailing Chile, Peru and Argentina.
Record harvest
Despite the tariff concerns, forecasts for this year point to a record citrus harvest of 180-million 15kg cartons, compared with 164.6-million in 2024 and 165.1-million in 2023.
KAL subsidiary Agrimark, one of SA’s leading suppliers of packaging for fruit exporters, is set to benefit from the uptick.
“The real effects are expected to become visible from the 2026 season onwards,” Walsh said.
“Importers will naturally compare tariffs across suppliers, and while some South American and EU competitors may look more attractive in the US, that creates openings for SA in other markets currently served by those suppliers. So, rather than focusing only on the challenge, there is an opportunity to grow in alternative markets and continue diversifying our export destinations.”
The impact of tariffs is more pronounced in niche, high-value commodities such as macadamias, raisins, fruit juice, ostrich leather, and select citrus lines. But even here, Walsh said, producers were adapting quickly.
“Macadamia producers are already exploring alternative markets such as India, recognising that global demand remains strong.”
SA’s broader trade strategy is now laser-focused on expanding market access to Asia, Africa and Europe, driven by strategic logistics upgrades and multilateral trade arrangements.
Reshaping SA’s trade profile
“Asia represents a rapidly expanding opportunity. Citrus exports to Vietnam, avocados to China, Japan and India, and premium wines to Asian markets with logistics upgrades, are already reshaping SA’s trade profile,” Walsh said.
SA is also pursuing new trade relationships with Turkey, Switzerland and other emerging partners, while aligning with broader African Continental Free Trade Areaambitions and the UK-India-SA trade corridors.
While some sectors may face pricing pressures in the US, Walsh said the disruption was acting as a catalyst for necessary adaptation.
“Differences in US tariffs between suppliers could shift trade patterns in the southern hemisphere, and that may work in SA’s favour. When it comes to the agricultural sector, the US is not as dominant for our exports as the EU, UK, China and Africa.
“For most producers, the US is simply one of several markets — not the sole focus. This reflects a sector that is strategically repositioning rather than one in decline,” he said.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.