Africa’s trade is growing faster than any other region this year, with strong demand for imports, and rising exports are expected to give the continent an edge in a slowing global economy, according to the latest projections by the World Trade Organisation.
WTO economists project that “Africa should see the fastest import growth of any region this year, at 11.8%,” outpacing Asia, Europe and the Americas. African exports are also expected to rise by 5.3% in 2025.
These trends reflect both increased demand for manufactured goods and rising commodity exports, including from SA.
The forecasts for the continent are outlined in the WTO’s latest Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on Tuesday. The WTO upgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, citing a stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related goods and a front-loading of US imports ahead of tariff changes.
The report offers a cautiously optimistic view for 2025 but signals a sharp slowdown ahead, with trade growth for 2026 revised down to just 0.5%. Rising tariffs, persistent policy uncertainty, and inventory overhangs in key economies are expected to weigh on demand next year.
Tariffs have become a major obstacle for global trade since US President Donald Trump introduced wide-ranging import duties in April. Many countries rushed to make trade deals with Washington, but even close allies like the UK still face a 10% tariff on goods exported to the US.
Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option.
— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala<br />WTO director-general
“The forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025 has risen to 2.4% (up from the estimate of 0.9% in the interim outlook in August), while the outlook for 2026 has deteriorated to 0.5% (down from the August estimate of 1.8%),” the report reads.
“The volume of world merchandise trade was up 4.9% year on year in the first half of 2025, growing at a faster rate than expected,” the WTO notes, citing front-loading of imports in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs.
Commenting on the report, WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general and the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025.
“Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option.”
She added: “Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere.”
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